Modeling Zoonotic Spillover Probability at Forest-Agricultural Interfaces

Modeling Zoonotic Spillover Probability at Forest-Agricultural Interfaces

Predicting cross-species pathogen transmission in fragmented tropical landscapes represents a critical imperative for global public health, yet constructing reliable epidemiological forecasts requires disciplined methodological hedging. Rapid agricultural expansion, particularly the conversion of primary rainforest into monoculture plantations in Southeast Asia, has drastically expanded the interface where wildlife, domestic livestock, and human populations intersect. Reservoir hosts, notably pteropodid fruit bats and forest rodents, experience significant nutritional stress and habitat displacement, which physiological studies link to elevated viral shedding. Serological surveys frequently detect antibodies against novel coronaviruses and henipaviruses in rural farming communities operating along forest margins. However, disease ecologists emphasize that detecting seropositivity indicates past immunological exposure rather than confirmed clinical transmission or sustained community propagation.

Translating localized immunological signals into predictive epidemiological risk models involves substantial analytical complexity. Spillover events require an alignment of biological barriers: